In the wild world of fantasy football, there is a multitude of opinions and predictions to make future decisions about players. The goal is to understand past results, current team structures, and each player’s skills to develop rankings of current inventory. Furthermore, the growth of the sports betting market adds another untapped market to compare each player’s potential outcome.
Below is a list of betting data converted to Fantasy Points for the top 12 quarterbacks based on their over/underseason totals. Unfortunately, sportsbook does not list all player stats to allow full comparison with predictions.
Note: For the fantasy points conversion, I used four points for pass touchdowns, six points for rushing scores, 0.05 per passing yard, and 0.1 for each rushing yard.
All data highlighted in green shows the latest over/under totals from sports betting. I filled all the missing betting points with last year’s stats (yellow). Then I ranked the quarterbacks by fantasy points based on their over/under totals.
Based on draft flow for the past two weeks in the National Fantasy Football Championship, the top five quarterbacks fall nearly in line with the betting data lines.
Tom Brady, Buccaneer
Both my projections (9th) and NFFC (10th) have Tom Brady lower than its value in sports betting (6th place). Tampa Bay added Russell Gage, Julio Jones and Kyle Rudolph, but it didn’t change my predictions or its value in the high-stakes market. Brady continues to exceed expectations, but his fantasy magic may not be in the elite cards in 2022.
Kyler Murray, Cardinals
I have Kyler Murray was rated highest (second), indicating an easy win in his passing yards (4,050.5) and passing touchdown (25.5) betting supports. I expect he’ll have a rebound year in the running game while their receiving corps structure looks much stronger this season.
Justin Herbert, Chargers
On the surface, my projections for JustinHerbert looking out of line from his draft and contest rank (2nd). If I look at my expected fantasy score (413.60), he’s only one rushing score away from fourth and 17 fantasy points away from second. You can campaign for six different quarterbacks to finish behind Josh Allen in the standings. Remember that I make the predictions that come out as rankings. It’s important to understand your perspective and recognize your potential ceiling. I like his top 3 receiving options better than what the Chiefs have to offer, so I’d pick him over Patrick Mahomes in priced drafts.
Joe Burrow, Bengal
i am optimistic Joe Burrow‘s ceiling. He has two excellent young wideouts and an improved offensive line. The combination of Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst gives the Bengals the complementary depth of reception to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns and yards. I placed him in fourth place while he was eighth and sixth in Sportsbook and NFFC.
Scroll to Next
where is the love
Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers finished sixth and eighth respectively in fantasy scoring in 2022, but both players rank lower in the NFFC (12th and 14th) and in the rankings sports illustrated Projections (15th and 16th). Stafford lost some steam due to his questionable right elbow and ranks well among the top quarterbacks in production in the running game. Rodgers remains an elite passer and will improve receivers around him. Unfortunately, the Packers lack big-name players at wide receiver, so projecting him higher isn’t easy.
Kirk cousins and Derek Carr should make attractive cheat quarterbacks because of their receiving talent. Both have top notch lead wideouts. However, the Raiders appear to have better depth, earning Carr a slightly higher rank in the NFFC and the sports illustrated rankings. I think both options are viable after the top eight quarterbacks.
Trey Lance, 49ers
The 49ers named Trey Lance their starting quarterback, but they also left a window open where he could get the hook if he doesn’t perform well and win games. He has three excellent receiving options and Lance will be a factor in the running game. Fantasy artists have turned their backs on him lately (11th), but that’s higher than his prospects in sports betting (16th). In this case, the eye in the sky may have more information than the betting and fantasy audience. His other blow is that San Francisco will manage to score on the ground. If its price point drops any further, I’d happily pick up a flyer about it as the QB2.
Tua Tagovailoa, dolphins
Lack of resume among the pros means not many fantasy artists struggle Tua Tagovailoa (17th), and sportsbook has a similar sentiment (ranked 18th). I consider it an excellent value with backend QB1 value. The addition of Tyreek Hill gives Miami a better structure for their receiving corps. Tagovailoa is a top talent, but he needs to prove it on the field before he draws more attention in drafts.
Jameis Winston, Saints
When adding the rushing statistics for James Winston, I probably gave him too much credit considering he’s suffering from a serious knee injury. However, I’m intrigued by him as QB2 if Michael Thomas has really recovered from his earlier ankle problems. New Orleans has a top pass-catching back (Alvin Kamara) while adding a smooth, high-ceilinged wide receiver (Chris Olave) in this year’s draft. Adam Trautman and Jarvis Landry give him the tools to pass for 5,000 yards and 30 points as the Saints open their passing game.
Justin Fields, Bears
I pulled all the stats for Justin Fields of the over/under lines in sports betting, but it didn’t paint a favorable picture. He was ranked 22nd but 16th in the NFFC writers. I’m not in his camp (25th) due to questionable depth of reception, while in rushing yards I’m somewhat on par with his expected production (513 – over/under 525.5). Fields provide no advantage when passing yards or touchdowns.
More Fantasy and NFL Coverage: